All team projections were calculated using the FEINs projections.


First, I changed hitters’ projected plate appearances based on their spot on the team, so as not to have one team with two first basemen with 500 PA, for example. I then added up the projected stats for each team. I adjusted each team’s number of outs (at-bats minus hits plus times caught stealing) to equal 4,126—last year’s league average—and moved the team’s stats up or down accordingly. Teams with more than 4,126 outs just had their stats prorated down to that number, but teams with less than that had the remaining number of outs filled with replacement-level production.

Once I have projected stats, I use a basic base runs formula to arrive at projected runs scored.

For pitchers, however, the method was much easier. I added up each team’s number of innings pitched and runs allowed (with no playing time adjustments; this was taken care of in the projection of each player’s role) and then adjusted to make the number of innings pitched equal 1,440. Like the batters, teams with more than that had their runs prorated down, and the teams with less than 1,440 had the remaining innings filled with replacement-level production. Runs allowed per game is simply runs per nine innings.

After this step, I have adjust the league runs scored to add up to league runs allowed. I think the runs scored total was around one-tenth of a run higher than the runs allowed total per game; the league runs scored and allowed was changed to 4.70.

I run each team’s runs and runs allowed stats through a Pythagenpat formula to get projected wins and losses.

Finally, I adjust wins and losses based on each team’s schedule to produce projected wins and losses. Believe me, it’s a lot easier than it sounds.

No comments yet.

You must be logged in to post a comment.