The Week 16 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.
The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.
These ratings do not take into account teams who rest players, such as the Colts, who lost 4.74 points on their rating after losing to the Jets by 14 points. As well, Week 17 predictions are based on full-strength teams—the Patriots are three-point favorites by these ratings yet eight-point underdogs to Houston based on Vegas spreads because bookies believe the Pats will rest their starters.
Both New England and Cincinnati, however, are fighting for the No. 3 seed and will, I believe, play the whole game with starters in.
Click on table headers to sort.
| Rank |
|
Team |
Rating |
W-L |
Pts |
Jump |
| 1 |
 |
San Diego Chargers |
31.78 |
33.71 |
29.86 |
+3.7 |
| 2 |
 |
Indianapolis Colts |
28.99 |
32.98 |
25.01 |
-4.74 |
| 3 |
 |
New England Patriots |
28.99 |
26.8 |
31.18 |
+2.02 |
| 4 |
 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
28.85 |
29.82 |
27.88 |
-1.08 |
| 5 |
 |
Dallas Cowboys |
27.5 |
26.66 |
28.35 |
+1.52 |
| 6 |
 |
Carolina Panthers |
26.64 |
22.53 |
30.75 |
+2.13 |
| 7 |
 |
New Orleans Saints |
26.38 |
30.05 |
22.71 |
-2.72 |
| 8 |
 |
Green Bay Packers |
25.83 |
25.26 |
26.39 |
+1.47 |
| 9 |
 |
Atlanta Falcons |
25.08 |
22.34 |
27.83 |
+2.21 |
| 10 |
 |
New York Jets |
24.79 |
22.19 |
27.38 |
+4.53 |
| 11 |
 |
Arizona Cardinals |
24.11 |
24.9 |
23.31 |
+1.72 |
| 12 |
 |
Houston Texans |
23.79 |
22.93 |
24.64 |
+1.47 |
| 13 |
 |
Tennessee Titans |
23.75 |
25.61 |
21.9 |
-2.64 |
| 14 |
 |
Baltimore Ravens |
23.23 |
21.64 |
24.83 |
-3.59 |
| 15 |
 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
23.23 |
24.59 |
21.87 |
+0.98 |
| 16 |
 |
San Francisco 49ers |
22.67 |
20.74 |
24.6 |
+0.88 |
| 17 |
 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
21.6 |
21.75 |
21.46 |
+3.74 |
| 18 |
 |
Minnesota Vikings |
21.43 |
23.74 |
19.12 |
-2.98 |
| 19 |
 |
New York Giants |
20.87 |
20.53 |
21.2 |
-4.06 |
| 20 |
 |
Denver Broncos |
20.55 |
19.37 |
21.72 |
+0.4 |
| 21 |
 |
Miami Dolphins |
20.14 |
19.77 |
20.52 |
-2.1 |
| 22 |
 |
Cleveland Browns |
20.07 |
17.91 |
22.23 |
+3.45 |
| 23 |
 |
Chicago Bears |
18.99 |
18.9 |
19.08 |
+4.09 |
| 24 |
 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
18.71 |
16.52 |
20.9 |
+3.66 |
| 25 |
 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
17.18 |
18.21 |
16.14 |
-3 |
| 26 |
 |
Washington Redskins |
15.48 |
14.73 |
16.24 |
-1.16 |
| 27 |
 |
Buffalo Bills |
14.88 |
15.17 |
14.6 |
-3.4 |
| 28 |
 |
Oakland Raiders |
14.55 |
16.04 |
13.06 |
-4.31 |
| 29 |
 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
12.91 |
11.96 |
13.86 |
-0.99 |
| 30 |
 |
Seattle Seahawks |
11.09 |
13.84 |
8.33 |
+0.37 |
| 31 |
 |
Detroit Lions |
10.35 |
10.09 |
10.61 |
-1.11 |
| 32 |
 |
St. Louis Rams |
9.59 |
9.07 |
10.11 |
-1.23 |
Last week’s picks went 9-for-16; through eight weeks of predictions, the model currently stands at a 77-46, a 63 percent pick rate. Here are this week’s forecasts, calculated as the difference in ratings plus a home field adjustment; through 16 weeks, home teams have won by an average of 2.2 points.
Predicted spread is in terms of the home team. The Colts are 11.9-point favorites (with starters in for the whole game), for instance. Vegas spreads are also shown for comparison.
Home |
Road |
Spread |
Vegas |
| Buffalo Bills |
Indianapolis Colts |
+11.9 |
N/A |
| Carolina Panthers |
New Orleans Saints |
-2.4 |
N/A |
| Cleveland Browns |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
-5.1 |
-1.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
Green Bay Packers |
-0.5 |
-3 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
Philadelphia Eagles |
-0.8 |
-3 |
| Denver Broncos |
Kansas City Chiefs |
-9.8 |
-13 |
| Detroit Lions |
Chicago Bears |
+6.5 |
+3 |
| Houston Texans |
New England Patriots |
+3 |
-8 |
| Miami Dolphins |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
-0.7 |
PK |
| Minnesota Vikings |
New York Giants |
-2.8 |
-8.5 |
| New York Jets |
Cincinnati Bengals |
-3.7 |
-10 |
| Oakland Raiders |
Baltimore Ravens |
+6.5 |
+10.5 |
| St. Louis Rams |
San Francisco 49ers |
+10.9 |
7 |
| San Diego Chargers |
Washington Redskins |
-18.5 |
-4 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
Tennessee Titans |
+10.5 |
+4.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Atlanta Falcons |
+4.2 |
+3 |
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