The Week 15 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.

The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.

Five teams that were predicted to win by seven or more points lost last week, and, as such, the ratings see a major shakeup this week. Twelve teams see a three-point swing in their rating from last week, and the Saints fall below No. 2 for the first time this season.

Click on table headers to sort.

Rank		Team	Rating	W-L	Pts	Jump
1		Indianapolis Colts	33.73	35.49	31.97	+0.26
2		Philadelphia Eagles	29.93	28.09	31.76	+4.35
3		New Orleans Saints	29.1	33.2	25.01	-4.4
4		San Diego Chargers	28.08	31.82	24.35	-0.23
5		New England Patriots	26.97	25.05	28.89	+1.44
6		Baltimore Ravens	26.83	24.43	29.22	+2.98
7		Tennessee Titans	26.39	26.34	26.44	+1.35
8		Dallas Cowboys	25.98	25.79	26.16	+3.77
9		New York Giants	24.93	22.56	27.29	+4.44
10		Carolina Panthers	24.51	20.54	28.48	+6.49
11		Minnesota Vikings	24.41	27.21	21.62	-6.06
12		Green Bay Packers	24.36	24.12	24.6	-3.56
13		Atlanta Falcons	22.87	20.62	25.12	+3.82
14		Arizona Cardinals	22.38	24.38	20.39	-1.35
15		Houston Texans	22.32	21.16	23.48	-0.46
16		Cincinnati Bengals	22.25	23.73	20.77	-1.12
17		Miami Dolphins	22.24	21.51	22.97	+0.08
18		San Francisco 49ers	21.79	19.72	23.85	-2.47
19		New York Jets	20.26	19.07	21.45	-2.62
20		Jacksonville Jaguars	20.17	20.03	20.32	+1.72
21		Denver Broncos	20.14	21.02	19.27	-2.77
22		Oakland Raiders	18.86	18.99	18.74	+3.01
23		Buffalo Bills	18.29	17.19	19.39	-0.53
24		Pittsburgh Steelers	17.86	19.11	16.61	+2.02
25		Washington Redskins	16.64	15.61	17.67	-3.71
26		Cleveland Browns	16.62	15.2	18.03	+1.14
27		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15.05	13.1	17	+3.75
28		Chicago Bears	14.9	15.8	14	-3.06
29		Kansas City Chiefs	13.9	13.31	14.48	-0.46
30		Detroit Lions	11.46	11.58	11.34	+0.42
31		St. Louis Rams	10.82	10.08	11.57	+0.32
32		Seattle Seahawks	10.72	15.47	5.96	-6

 
Last week’s picks went 8-for-16; through seven weeks of predictions, the model currently stands at a 68-39, a 64 percent pick rate. Here are this week’s forecasts, calculated as the difference in ratings plus a home field adjustment; through 15 weeks, home teams have won by an average of 2.1 points.

Predicted spread is in terms of the home team. The Titans are 0.4-point favorites, for instance. Vegas spreads are also shown for comparison.
 

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