The Week 14 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.

The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.

Click on table headers to sort.

Rank		Team	Rating	W-L	Pts	Jump
1		New Orleans Saints	33.51	35.32	31.7	-1.75
2		Indianapolis Colts	33.48	34.28	32.68	+0.24
3		Minnesota Vikings	30.47	30.1	30.84	+2.88
4		San Diego Chargers	28.32	29.79	26.84	+0.05
5		Green Bay Packers	27.92	26.97	28.87	-0.33
6		Philadelphia Eagles	25.58	26.32	24.84	+0.01
7		New England Patriots	25.53	23.95	27.11	+1.85
8		Tennessee Titans	25.04	23.98	26.1	+0.55
9		San Francisco 49ers	24.26	21.11	27.41	+4.15
10		Baltimore Ravens	23.85	22.87	24.83	+1.39
11		Arizona Cardinals	23.73	23.79	23.67	-4.94
12		Cincinnati Bengals	23.37	25.18	21.56	-3.19
13		Denver Broncos	22.92	23.35	22.48	-1.49
14		New York Jets	22.87	20.9	24.84	+0.24
15		Houston Texans	22.78	20.65	24.9	+3.87
16		Dallas Cowboys	22.2	23.03	21.37	+0.21
17		Miami Dolphins	22.16	23.21	21.11	+0.91
18		New York Giants	20.49	21.54	19.44	-0.09
19		Washington Redskins	20.35	16.64	24.05	+1.75
20		Atlanta Falcons	19.06	18.88	19.23	+1.36
21		Buffalo Bills	18.81	18.15	19.48	+0.78
22		Jacksonville Jaguars	18.46	20.68	16.23	-1.37
23		Carolina Panthers	18.02	17.45	18.59	-1.9
24		Chicago Bears	17.96	17.41	18.51	-0.1
25		Seattle Seahawks	16.72	18.17	15.28	-4.11
26		Oakland Raiders	15.85	16.66	15.04	-2.09
27		Pittsburgh Steelers	15.85	16.26	15.44	-3.71
28		Cleveland Browns	15.48	13.46	17.49	+4.24
29		Kansas City Chiefs	14.35	15.27	13.43	-0.85
30		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11.3	10.62	11.98	-0.31
31		Detroit Lions	11.04	12.19	9.9	-1.2
32		St. Louis Rams	10.5	10.73	10.28	-0.54

 
Last week’s picks went 12-for-16; through six weeks of predictions, the model currently stands at a 60-31, a 66 percent pick rate. Here are this week’s forecasts, calculated as the difference in ratings plus a home field adjustment; through 14 weeks, home teams have won by an average of 2.3 points.

Predicted spread is in terms of the home team. The Jaguars are underdogs by 12.4 points, for instance. Vegas spreads are also shown for comparison.
 

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