The Week 13 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.

The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.

The weekly weights have changed once again; each week they will be adjusted to make the deviation of ratings the same (set at 6.0). As such, the numbers in the "jump" column represent the change in rating from last week based on the new weights.

Click on table headers to sort.

Rank		Team	Rating	W-L	Pts	Jump
1		New Orleans Saints	35.25	35.58	34.92	-1.3
2		Indianapolis Colts	33.23	33.74	32.73	+1.68
3		Arizona Cardinals	28.67	26.94	30.4	+3.86
4		San Diego Chargers	28.27	29.05	27.49	-1.16
5		Green Bay Packers	28.25	26.5	30.01	+3.02
6		Minnesota Vikings	27.59	28.49	26.69	-3.86
7		Cincinnati Bengals	26.57	27.31	25.83	-0.4
8		Philadelphia Eagles	25.57	25.19	25.96	+2.49
9		Tennessee Titans	24.49	23.75	25.24	-1.68
10		Denver Broncos	24.4	24.73	24.08	+1.76
11		New England Patriots	23.68	22.36	25.01	-2.84
12		New York Jets	22.63	20.5	24.76	+1.59
13		Baltimore Ravens	22.46	22.05	22.87	-3.02
14		Dallas Cowboys	21.99	24.25	19.73	-4.02
15		Miami Dolphins	21.25	21.86	20.63	+2.84
16		Seattle Seahawks	20.84	20.6	21.07	+2.68
17		New York Giants	20.58	22.97	18.19	+4.02
18		San Francisco 49ers	20.1	18.34	21.86	-2.68
19		Carolina Panthers	19.92	19.08	20.75	+3.11
20		Jacksonville Jaguars	19.82	22.3	17.35	+3.59
21		Pittsburgh Steelers	19.56	19.23	19.89	-3.37
22		Houston Texans	18.9	18.37	19.44	-3.59
23		Washington Redskins	18.6	14.5	22.7	+1.3
24		Chicago Bears	18.06	18.03	18.09	+2.15
25		Buffalo Bills	18.04	16.61	19.47	-1.59
26		Oakland Raiders	17.94	18.75	17.13	+3.37
27		Atlanta Falcons	17.69	19.21	16.17	-2.49
28		Kansas City Chiefs	15.2	16.75	13.65	-1.76
29		Detroit Lions	12.25	12.99	11.5	+0.4
30		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11.61	10.9	12.32	-3.11
31		Cleveland Browns	11.24	10.16	12.32	+1.16
32		St. Louis Rams	11.05	11.17	10.92	-2.15

 
Last week’s picks went just 9-for-16; through five weeks of predictions, the model currently stands at a 48-27, a 64 percent pick rate. Here are this week’s forecasts, calculated as the difference in ratings plus a home field adjustment; through 13 weeks, home teams have won by an average of 2.0 points.

Predicted spread is in terms of the home team. The Titans are favorites by 15.4 points, for instance. Vegas spreads are also shown for comparison.
 

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