The Week 12 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.

The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.

Click on table headers to sort.

Rank		Team	Rating	W-L	Pts	Jump
1		New Orleans Saints	38.84	38.63	39.05	+3.01
2		Indianapolis Colts	33.19	35.03	31.36	+0.48
3		Minnesota Vikings	32.5	32.67	32.33	+1.3
4		San Diego Chargers	30.47	30.51	30.44	+2.26
5		Tennessee Titans	27.74	27.38	28.09	+1.93
6		Cincinnati Bengals	27.66	27.42	27.9	-0.71
7		New England Patriots	26.78	25.64	27.92	-3.31
8		Dallas Cowboys	26.4	28.01	24.8	+2.22
9		Baltimore Ravens	26.11	25.08	27.14	+1.54
10		Green Bay Packers	25.56	25.06	26.07	+0.33
11		Arizona Cardinals	25.19	24.65	25.72	-2.23
12		San Francisco 49ers	23.15	20.94	25.35	+4.06
13		Philadelphia Eagles	22.96	23.81	22.11	+1.29
14		Denver Broncos	22.82	23.79	21.84	+6.29
15		Pittsburgh Steelers	22.68	21.03	24.33	-1.93
16		Houston Texans	22.62	20.47	24.77	-0.76
17		New York Jets	21.1	18.4	23.8	+5.41
18		Buffalo Bills	20.12	17.89	22.36	+6.34
19		Atlanta Falcons	19.62	19.52	19.71	+1.11
20		Miami Dolphins	18.03	18.73	17.34	-6.77
21		Seattle Seahawks	18.01	17.63	18.38	+2.64
22		Kansas City Chiefs	16.68	17.57	15.79	-2.79
23		Washington Redskins	16.56	13.25	19.87	-1.15
24		Carolina Panthers	15.9	16.71	15.08	-5.63
25		Jacksonville Jaguars	15.28	19.03	11.53	-4.31
26		New York Giants	15.06	19.11	11	-6.37
27		Chicago Bears	14.82	14.74	14.9	-1.31
28		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.84	10.61	17.07	-1.48
29		Oakland Raiders	13.5	15.54	11.46	-2.39
30		St. Louis Rams	12.2	11.5	12.9	-3.14
31		Detroit Lions	10.92	12.57	9.28	-0.34
32		Cleveland Browns	8.68	7.89	9.46	+0.33

 
Last week’s picks went 11-for-16; through four weeks of predictions, the model currently stands at a 39-21, a 65 percent pick rate. Here are this week’s forecasts, calculated as the difference in ratings plus a home field adjustment; through nine weeks, home teams have won by an average of 2.16 points.

Predicted spread is in terms of the home team. The Bengals are favorites by 18.9 points, for instance. Vegas spreads are also shown for comparison.
 

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