The Week 10 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.

The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.

The weekly weightings have been changed for each sets of ratings in order to keep the same amount of spread throughout the league each week. As such, the Jump column has been replaced by last week’s rank in the table below.

Click on table headers to sort.

Rank		Team	Rating	W-L	Pts	Last
1		New Orleans Saints	35.83	37.05	34.62	2
2		Indianapolis Colts	32.71	34.27	31.15	3
3		Minnesota Vikings	31.2	31.98	30.42	5
4		New England Patriots	30.09	27.32	32.87	6
5		Cincinnati Bengals	28.37	27.21	29.52	1
6		San Diego Chargers	28.21	29.18	27.24	8
7		Arizona Cardinals	27.41	28.11	26.72	7
8		Tennessee Titans	25.8	24.36	27.25	12
9		Green Bay Packers	25.23	24.4	26.05	14
10		Miami Dolphins	24.8	23.09	26.51	15
11		Pittsburgh Steelers	24.61	24.3	24.91	4
12		Baltimore Ravens	24.57	22.17	26.97	11
13		Dallas Cowboys	24.19	26.54	21.83	13
14		Houston Texans	23.38	21.5	25.26	10
15		Philadelphia Eagles	21.67	22.32	21.01	18
16		Carolina Panthers	21.52	20.59	22.45	9
17		New York Giants	21.43	22.21	20.65	21
18		Jacksonville Jaguars	19.59	22.71	16.46	19
19		Kansas City Chiefs	19.47	19.25	19.69	29
20		San Francisco 49ers	19.09	17.46	20.72	16
21		Atlanta Falcons	18.51	17.92	19.11	17
22		Washington Redskins	17.71	14.99	20.44	20
23		Denver Broncos	16.53	20.71	12.35	24
24		Chicago Bears	16.13	15.57	16.69	26
25		Oakland Raiders	15.89	16.97	14.81	32
26		New York Jets	15.68	14.57	16.79	27
27		Seattle Seahawks	15.37	16.33	14.41	23
28		St. Louis Rams	15.34	13.16	17.52	25
29		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15.33	12.73	17.92	22
30		Buffalo Bills	13.79	14.05	13.52	28
31		Detroit Lions	11.26	13.25	9.27	31
32		Cleveland Browns	8.34	8.64	8.04	30

 
Last week’s picks went 12-for-16; through three weeks of predictions, the model currently stands at a 63.4 percent pick rate. Here are this week’s forecasts, calculated as the difference in ratings plus a home field adjustment; through nine weeks, home teams have won by an average of 1.51 points.

Predicted spread is in terms of the home team. The Bengals are favorites by 21.5 points, for instance. Vegas spreads are also shown for comparison.
 

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