Oakland’s No. 1 cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha, is regarded by most as one of the top corners in all of football. When this applies to fantasy football, most experts maintain that the No. 1 receivers lining up against him each week should have tempered results. The truth is, however, that the top wideout doesn’t always line up opposite the same defender on every play—if Arizona is facing Oakland, Larry Fitzgerald might line up across Nnamdi about 80 percent of the time.
In a quick study, I decided to look up the Nnamdi Effect for the first nine games of this season. Do No. 1 receivers perform worse against Nnamdi compared to every other week, and how much do No. 2 receivers benefit (if at all) from this effect?
Using FFToday’s opponent wide receiver stats, I compared each week’s top two receivers’ stats (top two receivers based on depth chart; Eddie Royal was the Broncos No. 2 receiver in Week Three, even though he had the third-most fantasy points) to their seasonal averages. Here are the results:
Per game
Facing Oakland and Nnamdi Vs. all other opponents WR Targ Rec Yds TD FPts Targ Rec Yds TD FPts No. 1 7.2 4.1 66.3 0.36 8.8 8.4 4.9 70.7 0.54 10.3 No. 2 4.5 2.3 37.8 0.29 5.5 5.5 3.1 38.2 0.27 5.4
No. 1 receivers see a 14.7 percent drop in fantasy points per game against Nnamdi, while No. 2 receivers see no real effect (a 1.5 percent increase). Quarterbacks also throw to No. 1 receivers versus Nnamdi about 1.2 times less per game and to No. 2 receivers one fewer time per game; it must be noted that teams playing Oakland have thrown the fourth-fewest pass attempts this year. Since this is a short study, I won’t adjust for that, but we can look at per-target numbers instead.
(Quick update: Against Oakland, teams pass 29.4 times per game, compared to the league average of 33.3 per game. The difference is about four less attempts per game, which falls in line with the 2.4 fewer targets Nos. 1 and 2 wideouts receive versus Oakland. In other words, the lack of targets against Oakland is not due to Nnamdi.)
Per target
The stats for No. 1 and 2 receivers against other opponents have been prorated to the number of targets they receive against Oakland. No. 1 receivers have four more receiving yards against other opponents than versus Nnamdi, but since that comes in one more target, it’s clear that their receiving yards per target is higher against Oakland.
Facing Oakland and Nnamdi Vs. all other opponents WR Targ Rec Yds TD FPts Targ Rec Yds TD FPts No. 1 7.2 4.1 66.3 0.36 8.77 7.2 4.2 60.7 0.46 8.84 No. 2 4.5 2.3 37.8 0.29 5.5 4.5 2.5 31.1 0.22 4.4
Looking at per-target numbers, we see that No. 1 receivers see close to no drop in overall production—.07 fantasy points—while No. 2 receivers see a 1.1-point increase (25 percent) in per-target fantasy points. Unrelated to fantasy, but still important, is that the catch rate (receptions/targets) for both receivers falls when facing the Raiders, more so for No. 2 wideouts.
The Nnamdi Effect isn’t real, per se; it’s just that the quarterback doesn’t throw as much to the No. 1 receiver (as well as to the No. 2 receiver) when playing Oakland. Based on per-target numbers, top receivers see no effect by lining up opposite Nnamdi, whereas No. 2 receivers see a 25 percent increase in fantasy points per target.
