The Week 10 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.

The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected (such as the Rams, who were 25-point underdogs but lost by just five) and punishes teams for playing worse than expected (such as the Saints). For instance, the Colts were one-point favorites by these ratings and won by one point. Thus, their rating this week only jumped by 2.62 points, mostly due to their four-point increase in W-L rating.

Click on table headers to sort.

Rank		Team	Rating	W-L	Pts	Jump
1		Cincinnati Bengals	38.35	37.28	39.42	+3.6
2		New Orleans Saints	38.07	43.19	32.95	-2.05
3		Indianapolis Colts	35.5	38.51	32.5	+2.62
4		Pittsburgh Steelers	31.78	32.31	31.24	-3.86
5		Minnesota Vikings	31.05	33.5	28.6	-0.44
6		New England Patriots	30.61	27.73	33.48	-2.94
7		Arizona Cardinals	28.14	29.77	26.51	+0.87
8		San Diego Chargers	27.47	29.29	25.66	+4.61
9		Carolina Panthers	27.01	26.04	27.99	+4.63
10		Houston Texans	26.76	25.7	27.81	-0.21
11		Baltimore Ravens	25.77	24.09	27.46	+0.31
12		Tennessee Titans	25.57	24.38	26.76	+3.78
13		Dallas Cowboys	24.11	25.74	22.48	-9.39
14		Green Bay Packers	24.1	21.87	26.33	+9.26
15		Miami Dolphins	22.56	21.36	23.77	+0.91
16		San Francisco 49ers	20.32	19.98	20.66	+3.85
17		Atlanta Falcons	19.93	19.17	20.69	-4.86
18		Philadelphia Eagles	19.77	18.59	20.96	-4.89
19		Jacksonville Jaguars	18.6	19.48	17.72	+4.35
20		Washington Redskins	17.51	15.01	20.01	+8.2
21		New York Giants	16.92	16.1	17.75	-0.19
22		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16.3	11.25	21.35	-1.18
23		Seattle Seahawks	16.14	15.79	16.48	-1.08
24		Denver Broncos	15.74	20.22	11.25	-8.33
25		St. Louis Rams	15.55	12.59	18.52	+1.6
26		Chicago Bears	14.15	13.52	14.77	-3.91
27		New York Jets	14.12	11.9	16.33	-4.65
28		Buffalo Bills	13.55	14.66	12.44	-3.98
29		Kansas City Chiefs	13.32	12.46	14.18	+6.56
30		Cleveland Browns	7.39	9.68	5.09	-0.69
31		Detroit Lions	7.34	5.57	9.11	+0.15
32		Oakland Raiders	5.22	6.59	3.84	-6.84

 
Last week’s picks went eight-for-15, with three of those losses coming from road teams favored by less than one point. Here are this week’s forecasts, calculated as the difference in ratings plus a home field adjustment; through nine weeks, home teams have won by an average of 1.83 points.

Predicted spread is in terms of the home team. The Patriots are favorites by 18.32 points, for instance. Vegas spreads are also shown for comparison.
 

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