How accurate were my objective FEIN projections ? You may think that a completely automated football forecasting system won’t be as accurate as human projections such as CBS Sportsline’s , FF Today’s , or ESPN’s . Let’s see how each set of projections stacked up in accuracy for the 2009 season.

I looked at quarterbacks with 200 pass attempts, running backs with 100 rushes, wide receivers with 40 catches, and tight ends with 30 catches this season (selecting only those with a projection from each system). There were 33 QBs, 47 RBs, 54 WRs, and 25 TEs who met these criteria.

I first adjusted each system’s projections up or down to make the average projection equal to actual average of the players in the sample. (For instance, if ESPN had projected 4.5 yards per carry and the average was 4.2, I subtracted three-tenths of a yard from each player’s projection.)

Then I compared each player’s adjusted projection to his actual number. I squared the difference between the two and weighted that number based on his actual number of attempts or catches, and took the square root of the average for each system.

Here are the results.

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