Through six weeks of the season, most fantasy football owners believe they have enough of a sample size to get a good gauge on a player’s value—Steve Smith of the Giants is good; Steve Smith of the Panthers is bad.
My preseason fantasy football projections forecasted that Vincent Jackson would be a top-10 wide receiver (he’s currently No. 11) and that Anquan Boldin would be outside the top 15 (he’s No. 35). Of course, there were some picks that haven’t played out as predicted, such as Peyton Manning’s projected No. 6 ranking or Clinton Portis’s No. 7 spot at their respective positions.
With that said, a player isn’t only as good as his 2009 stats. Just because Cedric Benson is currently the No. 6 running back doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be a top-10 back in the final 10 weeks. Most preseason predictions ranked Benson outside of the top-30 running backs, and that should be taken into account when you’re considering selling high on Benson or trading for him.
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Riddle me this: If many a fantasy analyst proclaim that it’s very difficult to predict how a defense will do before the season, then how much stock should we put into early-season performance?
Think about it. Is it at all likely that said defense will perform up to those numbers the rest of the season if they are so unpredictable and inconsistent?
Moreover, during which week of the season is it easiest to predict a defense’s stats for the remainder of the year? In other words, can you better predict the final 12 games using the first four, or the final four games using the first 12?
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Whether it’s fourth-and-two or fourth-and-12 at the 35-yard-line, your decision to punt or kick a field goal should be the same. But not so in the NFL.
On 4th down from identical field positions, coaches tend to attempt FGs more often with shorter distances to go and punt more often with longer distances to go. For example, when kicking on 4th and 1 from the 32, coaches went for the FG 100% of the time. But when kicking on 4th and long (7+ yds) from the 32, coaches went for the FG less often–80% of the time.
I’d love to see the numbers for each team/coach.
