Last year at this time I ran a series of posts about NCAA tournament trends—early-round upsets, sweet sixteen and elite eight matchups, and final four seeds. I won’t update it this year, but the main points still stand. I urge you to take 10 minutes out of your day to read the posts to help you fill out your bracket.

After a round of basketball, my bracket is 25 of 32, with only two Sweet 16 picks gone (West Virginia and Clemson). But could it have been better?

I based most of my bracket—especially the first round—on historic trends. I suggested to advance the top three seeds in each region automatically, pick a No. 4 seed to lose if you’re daring (I picked Cleveland State), pick one or two upsets of a No. 5 seed (I had two), pick one upset of a No. 6 and No. 7 seed, and pick one or two No. 9 seeds to win (I picked two).

Let’s see how that compared to the actual results.

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We’ve gotten through the first two rounds and the Final Four . Now, let’s get to the Sweet Sixteen and look at the Final Four again.

Like last time, all statistics are since 1989, unless otherwise noted.

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The majority of bracket-fillers know the age-old advice to pick at least one No. 12 seed upset in the first round. This article will look at other predictable first-round upsets and how those teams compare in the second round of play.

All statistics are in the past 20 years, unless noted otherwise.

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Number of No. 1 Seeds

• Last year was the first year all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.

• In the last 20 years, a No. 1 seed has made the Final Four every year except 2006.

• Only four times in those 20 years have three or more No. 1 seeds made the Final Four: 1993, 1997, 1999, and 2008. That means that in 15 of those 20 years, one or two No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.

• Of those 15 instances, nine times did only one No. 1 seed make the Final Four, and six times did two No. 1 seeds make the Final Four.

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