The Week 16 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.
The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.
These ratings do not take into account teams who rest players, such as the Colts, who lost 4.74 points on their rating after losing to the Jets by 14 points. As well, Week 17 predictions are based on full-strength teams—the Patriots are three-point favorites by these ratings yet eight-point underdogs to Houston based on Vegas spreads because bookies believe the Pats will rest their starters.
Both New England and Cincinnati, however, are fighting for the No. 3 seed and will, I believe, play the whole game with starters in.
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The Week 15 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.
The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.
Five teams that were predicted to win by seven or more points lost last week, and, as such, the ratings see a major shakeup this week. Twelve teams see a three-point swing in their rating from last week, and the Saints fall below No. 2 for the first time this season.
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The Week 14 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.
The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.
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Through 13 weeks of football, both the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints are 12-0 with no huge upset special looming in the final four weeks of the season. Although both of their toughest games (Colts vs Broncos and Saints vs Cowboys) are at home, the chances of an undefeated season aren’t 100 percent or even 90 percent.
If the Colts have a 90 percent chance to win each of their remaining games, their probability of a 16-0 season is .90 x .90 x .90 x .90, or 65.6 percent. Using the Week 13 NFL ratings, we can estimate the win probability for each of their remaining games and, thus, their likelihood of an undefeated season.
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The Week 13 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.
The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.
The weekly weights have changed once again; each week they will be adjusted to make the deviation of ratings the same (set at 6.0). As such, the numbers in the "jump" column represent the change in rating from last week based on the new weights.
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The Week 12 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.
The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.
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The Week 10 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.
The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected and punishes teams for playing worse than expected. For instance, a team that is 15-point favorites and only wins by 10 will see a decline in their rating.
The weekly weightings have been changed for each sets of ratings in order to keep the same amount of spread throughout the league each week. As such, the Jump column has been replaced by last week’s rank in the table below.
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The Week 10 NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.
The Elo method rewards teams for performing better than expected (such as the Rams, who were 25-point underdogs but lost by just five) and punishes teams for playing worse than expected (such as the Saints). For instance, the Colts were one-point favorites by these ratings and won by one point. Thus, their rating this week only jumped by 2.62 points, mostly due to their four-point increase in W-L rating.
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The Week Nine NFL ratings are below. Ratings are calculated based on an Elo backbone using both margin of victory as well as just the result of the team’s game. Final ratings, represented on a points scale—a 21 rating is three points better than an 18 rating on a neutral field—are an average of these two individual scores.
New this week is each team’s jump in rating from last week; increases are in green, and decreases are in red. The Buccaneers and Packers are the biggest gainers and droppers, respectively, this week, after Tampa Bay beat Green Bay by 10 points despite being 12-point underdogs.
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Last season, I introduced a set of Elo-like ratings for the NFL, but I had to continually tinker with the formula as the season progressed as a result of the too-simple starting algorithm. I have updated most if not all of the steps of the method, but the Elo backbone still holds steady.
1. Each team’s rating starts near 21, the average points scored per game. (As of now, that number is 21.7.)
2. Win score is based upon points scored and allowed (adjusted for game location) using the Pythagorean formula with a floating exponent based on total points scored in that game. (In other words, a 21-20 win at a neutral site is worse than a 21-7 win in terms of win score.)
3. Since each team’s rating is in terms of points, expected win score is calculated the same way as actual win score.
4. Rating is equal to previous week’s rating + 15 * (win score — expected win score). If the Saints play the Rams and only win by three, their rating will drop because they should have won by much more.
Like last year, ratings are found using the win score as described above (noted as "points" in the table below) and also by looking strictly at whether they won or lost, which corresponds to a win score of one or zero, respectively. The overall rating is an average of these two results.
Ratings after the jump.
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