Note: All team projections were found using the FEINs projections. An explanation behind projected wins, losses, and other stats can be found here.

1. Atlanta Braves

 
Atlanta allowed 4.86 runs per game last year. But the Braves let Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Tim Glavine, Chuck James, and Blaine Boyer pitch a combined 353 innings, and in those, they allowed 254 runs, or a 6.48 runs-per-nine average. If you take out their stats from Atlanta’s team totals, the Braves’ remaining pitchers allowed just 4.33 runs per nine and had an ERA of 3.93.

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Using their season win percentages, you can found how often each team will win 72 or more (or 10 or less) games this year using a binomial distribution (Excel function: BINOMDIST). Here’s a nifty table that shows the possibilities of four teams and their probabilities of winning a various number of games. The most wins in a season is 72, and the least is nine.

Just two games into the season, the Detroit Pistons traded Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess to the Denver Nuggets for Allen Iverson . The Nuggets are expected to waive McDyess after the deal is finalized.

Here now are some of my thoughts on the deal: Read More »

Question: Why are you posting projections now? There are still injuries and depth chart situations to settle!

Answer: Because once you read how I figured out the projections, you’ll realize it doesn’t matter when I post them—they’d be the same now as they will be in a month. Read More »